| WHAT TO WATCH

Nets Remain Optmistic in Face of Downer Season

By Daniel Fienberg, Rick Porter

Thursday, May 27, 2004

04:32 PM PT

Okay, so it wasn't a great year for broadcast television. The 2003-04 season produced almost no big, buzzworthy hits, and ratings were down on every network except CBS, with ABC and The WB taking the biggest losses.

But for all the wrung hands and gnashed teeth about ratings free-fall early in the season, things didn't end up as badly as one might think. Collectively, viewership of the broadcast nets was down about 4 percent from last season, and ratings among the key adults 18-49 demographic slipped 7 percent. "The Apprentice" was a ratings winner for NBC, as were "Cold Case" and "Two and a Half Men" for CBS, while "The O.C." gave FOX a new drama centerpiece.

Still, the networks have some work to do to get back those viewers, either by fewer repeats, year-round scheduling or -- and this is a stretch -- producing better shows. Here's our take on what the networks did right and wrong this season, and what each might try in the future.

ABC

Season averages: 9 million viewers (fourth), 3.2 rating in adults 18-49 (fourth)
The good (top five shows): "Monday Night Football" (16.8 million viewers); "The Bachelor" (12.78 million); "The Bachelorette" (11.55 million); "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" (11.07 million); "8 Simple Rules" (9.98 million)
The bad (bottom five shows): "L.A. Dragnet" (4.77 million); "Monk" (5.28 million); "The Big House" (5.71 million); "The D.A." (5.92 million); "Threat Matrix" (6.46 million)
The ugly: Only one of this year's freshman series, "Hope & Faith," will be back on ABC's schedule in the fall.

If cable's TNT "knows drama," maybe it should do some consulting for ABC. For the second year in a row, not one of ABC's fall dramas survived the season, which contributed to declines from last season and a second straight fourth-place finish.

After making a few modest gains last season, thanks mostly to a new slate of comedies, ABC slipped below the level of even its disastrous 2001-02 season in total viewers and adults 18-49, which probably explains why network chairman Lloyd Braun and ABC Entertainment president Susan Lyne were shown the door in April. ABC's scripted shows took a beating: Not one sitcom or drama on the network averaged more than 10 million viewers per week. "The Bachelor" and "The Bachelorette," though still solid performers among the 18-49 demographic, also dipped this season.

Stephen McPherson, ABC's new entertainment chief, has a lot of work to do for next season, but the good news is that several of the network's pilots for fall ("Desperate Housewives" and "Lost" among them) look promising. "The Practice" ticked up in its final weeks, meaning there's hope for its spinoff, "Fleet Street," and "8 Simple Rules" is moving to Friday to join "Hope & Faith," a moderate success in its first year, in the "TGIF" comedy block. A big turnaround is unlikely, but if ABC shows some signs of life next season, McPherson should be justly congratulated.

CBS

Season averages: 13.09 million viewers (first), 3.9 in adults 18-49 (third)
The good: "CSI" (25.6 million viewers); "Survivor: All-Stars" (21.49 million); "Survivor: Pearl Islands" (20.72 million); "CSI: Miami" (17.97 million); "Everybody Loves Raymond" (17.35 million)
The bad: Saturday movie (4.95 million); "The Brotherhood of Poland, N.H." (6.94 million); "Star Search" (7.62 million); "The Stones" (7.74 million); "Century City" (7.92 million)
The ugly: The network dumped its movie "The Reagans" onto Viacom sibling Showtime after a leaked, early version of the script prompted a flood of complaints from conservative groups.

"The pride, the luster, the title the Tiffany Network is back at CBS," declares CBS Chairman Les Moonves. "We have reclaimed that mantle."

Overall, CBS' dominance is impressive. In total viewers, CBS will beat second-place NBC by an average of more than two million people per night. The network has won 25 out of 35 weeks during the season and finished first among adults 25-54, the demographic CBS insists it craves. The network has also captured six consecutive sweeps periods in overall ratings, a fact that presumably makes advertisers gleeful, and is the only network to improve over last season in adults 18-49.

"Cold Case," "Two and a Half Men" and "Navy NCIS" all became hits out of the box, while "Joan of Arcadia" was one of the fall's big buzz shows. Failures like "The Stones," "Century City" and "The Handler" hardly made a dent.

Things are good at CBS.

What CBS' schedule doesn't have is many weaknesses, so the network is mostly just looking to upgrade. "The Guardian" drew solid audiences on Tuesday, but the viewers were too old, so CBS has replaced it with the younger-skewing "Clubhouse." Original dramas pulled in respectable crowds on Saturday, but viewers for "Hack" and "The District" were too old, so CBS is going with a mixture of reality and repeats. CBS' biggest gamble is putting the new "CSI: NY" in on Wednesday nights opposite NBC's "Law & Order." While the new forensic saga probably won't beat Dick Wolf's venerable procedural, it's sure to massively improve that timeslot. Barring a sudden viewer disgust for forensics, CBS will be tough to remove from the top spot in the immediate future.

FOX

Season averages: 9.73 million viewers (third), 4.1 in adults 18-49 (second)
The good: "American Idol" Tuesday (25.76 million viewers); "American Idol" Wednesday (23.58 million); "My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance" (16.64 million); "The Simple Life" Wednesday (11.58 million); "The Simpsons" (10.71 million)
The bad: "Forever Eden" Friday (2.79 million); "Wonderfalls" (3.56 million); "Luis" (3.61 million); "Forever Eden" Thursday (3.62 million); "Playing It Straight" (3.94 million)
The ugly: Five words: "Joe Millionaire: An International Affair."

FOX had the first new drama cancelled with "Skin." The network also has the first comedy cancelled with "Luis." Two of the shows announced to advertisers at last May's upfronts -- the pseudo-comedy "The Ortegas" and the afterlife drama "Still Life" -- never aired. Take away the ratings inflation courtesy of a surprisingly successful baseball postseason and FOX seemingly has little to crow about for this year.

FOX Entertainment President Gail Berman disagrees.

"I describe it as tremendously successful for us, because it puts us closer to our nearest competitor than we've ever been in the history of the network," Berman says. "When we're talking about being one-tenth of a rating point away from our competitor who's down 7 percent for the year, we're feeling very good."

Thus, while FOX will end the season down slightly in total viewers and among adults 18-49, they're up because ABC and NBC are down. Thursday and Friday nights were disastrous, and even the normally reliable Sundays showed a decline. The network can still boast wins among adults 18-34 and teens.

FOX is attacking the concept of year-round scheduling with gusto. New and returning shows will premiere in June, November and January, with the January schedule of particular importance due to the return of "American Idol." The November launch is glutted with reality offerings, but if just one show succeeds from the pack that includes "The Partner," "The Next Great Champ" and "The Billionaire," then FOX will be better off than last fall. In the January season, pay particular attention to Thursday nights, with the addition of freshman hit "The O.C." (and the dubious renewal of "Tru Calling") and Fridays, where two new dramas are sure to get a hard marketing push.

NBC

Season averages: 11.01 million viewers (second) 4.2 in adults 18-49 (first)
The good: "Friends" (21.41 million viewers); "The Apprentice" (20.7 million); "ER" (19.51 million); "Law & Order" (16.04 million); "Will & Grace" (15.63 million)
The bad: "The Tracy Morgan Show" (5.83 million); "Miss Match" (6.34 million); Saturday movie (6.49 million); "The Restaurant" (6.86 million); "Boomtown" (7.2 million)
The ugly: The attempt to Americanize the British hit "Coupling" earned savage reviews, bled audience from its "Will & Grace" lead-in and lasted only four episodes.

During the NBC upfront presentation last week, network boss Jeff Zucker used the terms "dominant" and "No. 1" a total of 25 times, and he continued the theme in assessing NBC's season.

"This year we proved we're a true broadcaster," Zucker says. "We had a convincing win in adults 18-49" -- which narrowed some in the season's final nights, thanks to FOX's "American Idol" finale -- and when you take out sports, we're alone in first in adults 25-54 and tied for first in adults 18-34. ... That shows our true strength, depth and how broad we are."

None of which erases the fact that NBC's biggest show, "Friends," won't be around next fall. Long-time Tuesday anchor "Frasier" is gone as well, leaving the network to try untested comedies ("Joey" and "Father of the Pride") in both those spots. Flagship drama "Law & Order" will also be tested, with the newest member of TV's other huge cop franchise, "CSI: NY," setting up shop at 10 p.m. Wednesdays on CBS.

Still, NBC has some substantial building blocks in place for next season. He has "The Apprentice," this season's top-rated new show, for a full year; a fourth "Law & Order" is on the way; and the "Joey" pilot was pretty good. With the Olympics leading into an early launch of the season, Zucker will probably find cause to use "dominant" a few more times next May.

UPN

Season averages: 3.37 million viewers (sixth), 1.4 in adults 18-49 (sixth)
The good: "America's Next Top Model" (6.31 million viewers); "WWE Smackdown!" (5.11 million); "Girlfriends" (3.66 million); "Eve" (3.66 million); "Half and Half" (3.49 million)
The bad: "Game Over" (1.88 million); "The Mullets" (2.01 million); Friday movie (2.16 million); "Jake 2.0" (2.38 million); "I'm Still Alive" (2.44 million)
The ugly: Over the past three seasons, only one drama series -- "Star Trek: Enterprise" -- has lasted longer than one year.

In its second installment, "America's Next Top Model" went from summer niche sensation to what counts as a breakout hit by UPN standards. The Tyra Banks Bonanza proved so successful that UPN instantly ordered two more seasons and then built its entire fall schedule around the show.

UPN was down for the season in most indicators, but compared to many other networks, the declines were slight. Overall ratings were stable, with viewership numbers and adults 18-49 figures marginally down.

Beyond "ANTM," last development season didn't yield any hits, but "Eve" and "All of Us" were solid performers and will return. "The Mullets," "Rock Me Baby" and "Jake 2.0" weren't so lucky and vanished without a trace.

The network is looking to modify its core audience, aiming more programming at the young female viewers who made "ANTM" so successful. New dramas "Kevin Hill" and "Veronica Mars" should play to that demographic, while new comedy "Second Time Around" looks like a natural fit in the Monday-night comedy block. With the embarrassing Friday-night movie finally off the schedule, UPN is finally beginning to look like a network with a purpose. With The WB searching for direction, UPN should show improvement and perhaps make a run at fifth place.

The WB

Season averages: 3.64 million viewers (fifth), 1.5 in adults 18-49 (fifth)
The good: "7th Heaven" (5.65 million viewers); "Smallville" (4.96 million); "Everwood" (4.62 million); "Charmed" (4.31 million); "Gilmore Girls" (4.13 million)
The bad: "Run of the House" (2.01 million); "The Help" (2.49 million); "Smallville: Beginnings" (2.57 million); "What I Like About You" (2.58 million); "Like Family" (2.66 million)
The ugly: "Tarzan" scored a TV Guide cover before the season even started but fizzled with viewers once it did, lasting only eight episodes.

The WB has freely admitted that 2003-04 has not been its best season. A little too freely, maybe, according to CEO Jordan Levin.

"Unfortunately, people have taken advantage of that to some extent and tried to position this as our worst season, and it's not," Levin says.

Still, the numbers don't lie: The WB is down about 11 percent in total viewers compared to last season and 14 percent in its target demographic of people 12-34. The declines were reflected across the schedule, with veteran shows like "7th Heaven," "Smallville" and "Gilmore Girls" all losing audience.

On the bright side, the network's decision to stick with "One Tree Hill" despite a slow start paid some dividends late in the season, with teen girls especially warming to the show. "Everwood" and "Gilmore Girls" also finished their seasons with strong creative runs that were reflected somewhat in the ratings.

Like several other networks, The WB is moving toward more year-round programming, and it has confidence in new dramas "The Mountain" and "Jack & Bobby." More of a head-scratcher is the decision to replace the departed "Angel" with sketch-comedy shows starring Jeff Foxworthy and Drew Carey. Levin insists both comics have large followings. We'll see.

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